Scenario planning for a less predictable global economy
How leaders can use strategic foresight to test market, footprint and investment choices against multiple plausible futures.
Read articleRelated macro
Global strategic intelligence
Integrate global signals, scenarios and intelligence to support strategic decisions across markets and industries.
Discover the macroEditorial overview
Articles
The new map of strategic dependencies
How raw materials, supply networks and technology competition are redefining where global enterprises remain exposed.
Read articleFocus
Market access increasingly depends on political permission as well as demand
Sanctions, export controls and investment restrictions can alter customers, suppliers and technology access with little warning.
Global regulation increasingly shapes how companies structure cross-border activity
Diverging rules on data, technology, trade and competition can fragment operating models and increase strategic complexity.
Strategic challenges
How could a distant conflict become a material enterprise problem?
The challenge is tracing second- and third-order effects across connected systems before direct exposure becomes obvious.
Where could financial-system stress tighten enterprise options first?
The challenge is identifying how changes in liquidity, funding or currencies transmit into capital access and operating economics.
POV
An early warning that triggers no decision is just earlier information
The value of foresight lies in preserving options before volatility removes them, not in identifying change first.
Distance from a conflict does not equal distance from its consequences
Modern enterprise exposure is shaped by network connections, not simply by physical proximity to the original shock.
Strategic impact
Materials intelligence makes supply concentration and substitution risk more visible
Mapping sources, processing and alternatives helps management assess where critical inputs may constrain operations or investment.
Commodity intelligence links market shifts with operational and financial exposure
Tracking supply, inventories and policy helps management understand where price or availability changes may become material.
What we observe
Macro analysis often stops at forecasts instead of tracing business implications
Knowing where inflation or rates may move is insufficient if the effect on pricing, demand and funding remains unclear.
Companies often watch interest rates while ignoring broader liquidity conditions
Funding risk can rise through market depth, currency pressure and investor behavior even before benchmark rates move materially.