Planning for uncertainty with simulation and optimization
How companies can move beyond point forecasts by combining scenarios, predictive models and optimization to improve decisions under volatile conditions.
Read articleRelated macro
Banking and capital markets
Strengthen financial performance and strategic position as technology, regulation and changing market economics reshape banking and capital markets.
Discover the macroEditorial overview
Articles
When the business model does not travel
How leaders can decide what to standardize globally and what to localize across proposition, channels, economics and operations.
Read articleFocus
Banking is entering an era of faster markets and more programmable money
AI, tokenization and stablecoins are beginning to change trading, payments and financial infrastructure while regulation remains uneven.
AI is forcing software companies to question the economics of software itself
Agents can automate work previously performed inside applications, putting pressure on user-based pricing and established SaaS product boundaries.
Strategic challenges
Which chemical assets still deserve capital in a structurally oversupplied market?
The challenge is deciding where to defend scale, exit disadvantaged capacity or shift toward specialties with stronger economics.
How should traders price markets when physical disruption becomes political?
The challenge is separating temporary risk premia from structural changes in routes, inventories and access to strategic commodities.
POV
Food supply can be globally abundant and commercially fragile at the same time
Aggregate availability matters less when the specific ingredient, route or origin a business depends on becomes constrained.
Commodity volatility is no longer enough to understand commodity risk
The harder question is whether geopolitics is temporarily repricing supply or permanently rewriting how resources reach markets.
Strategic impact
AI is moving deeper into underwriting and claims decision workflows
Better data and automation can change operating economics, but only where legacy systems and risk governance can support scaled deployment.
Software-defined vehicles are changing where automotive value is created
Centralized architectures and remote updates move differentiation from mechanical features toward software, data and digital services.
What we observe
Governments often digitize agencies without integrating the citizen journey
Better portals still leave users navigating institutional boundaries when data, identity and service ownership remain fragmented.
Chip strategies often treat geographic diversification as if every fab were equivalent
Leading-edge capability depends on equipment, talent, packaging and supplier ecosystems that cannot be replicated by capital expenditure alone.