Scenario planning for a less predictable global economy
How leaders can use strategic foresight to test market, footprint and investment choices against multiple plausible futures.
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Global strategic intelligence
Integrate global signals, scenarios and intelligence to support strategic decisions across markets and industries.
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Articles
The new map of strategic dependencies
How raw materials, supply networks and technology competition are redefining where global enterprises remain exposed.
Read articleFocus
Early warning matters when strategic conditions can deteriorate before consensus moves
Leading signals across politics, markets and policy can reveal pressure before it appears in mainstream forecasts.
Strategic foresight tests decisions against futures that cannot be forecast precisely
The objective is to understand how different external conditions could alter assumptions, exposures and enterprise choices.
Strategic challenges
Which commercial relationships could become restricted before contracts expire?
The challenge is identifying where policy escalation can turn viable business into constrained or uneconomic activity.
Which macro shifts are material enough to change enterprise assumptions?
The challenge is separating headline economic movement from the specific transmission channels that affect the business.
POV
Distance from a conflict does not equal distance from its consequences
Modern enterprise exposure is shaped by network connections, not simply by physical proximity to the original shock.
Supplier diversification is meaningless when the network underneath is concentrated
Resilience depends on independent supply paths, not simply on having multiple contractual counterparties.
Strategic impact
Network intelligence makes concentration and transmission risk more visible
Mapping suppliers, routes and shared dependencies helps management understand where disruption could cascade across the network.
Transmission analysis reveals how external shocks can cascade into the enterprise
Mapping channels across trade, finance and supply networks helps management identify indirect exposure and potential amplification.
What we observe
Companies often analyze technology competition as if it were purely commercial
Market leadership can become secondary when governments influence capital, standards, exports and strategic supply chains.
Macro analysis often stops at forecasts instead of tracing business implications
Knowing where inflation or rates may move is insufficient if the effect on pricing, demand and funding remains unclear.