Strategy in a world of overlapping disruptions
How leaders can make sharper choices on where to compete, where to invest and what to stop when multiple structural shifts hit at once.
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Define business strategy through rigorous choices on growth, positioning, portfolios, resources and execution.
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What has to be true for this business to work?
The most useful venture plan identifies the small number of assumptions whose failure would make the opportunity economically or strategically unattractive.
What happens after your competitor responds?
A strategically attractive move can become economically destructive when the likely reactions of rivals are excluded from the decision.
Strategic challenges
Consumer demand is organised around occasions, not averages
The same person can make very different choices depending on need, context, urgency, channel and willingness to pay.
Successful products can become strategically obsolete
Revenue may remain healthy after technology, customer behaviour or competitive alternatives have begun weakening a product's future role.
POV
A network is not stronger because it is larger
Growth becomes destructive when new units cannibalise existing demand or require economics that operators cannot sustain.
Scaling is not the reward for growth
Scale should follow evidence that the underlying system becomes stronger, not merely larger, as customers and complexity increase.
Strategic impact
Changing the revenue model changes the business
Moving from transactions to subscriptions or outcomes affects cash flow, risk, capabilities and customer relationships far beyond pricing.
Synergy must exceed the cost of complexity
Shared customers, capabilities or infrastructure create value only when their benefits outweigh coordination, compromise and managerial overhead.
What we observe
Strategic portfolios rarely stop enough work
We frequently see new priorities added without removing initiatives whose original rationale has weakened or disappeared.
Companies often confuse uniqueness with relevance
We frequently see businesses emphasise differences customers can recognise but have little reason to value or pay for.